Montana's own labor projections show 31,250 new jobs statewide through 2034 — but office and administrative support is the only major occupation group actually shrinking, the sole negative entry among 22 categories (MTDLI, 2026). National data points to why: it's the one job type Bureau of Labor Statistics economists explicitly link to AI-driven efficiency gains reducing how many workers a business needs (BLS, 2026).
The one negative number in a 22-category forecast
Every February, the Montana Department of Labor & Industry publishes a decade-long employment forecast built under contract with the U.S. Department of Labor. The 2026 edition, covering 2024 through 2034, projects the state adding an average of 3,130 jobs a year — 31,250 total — concentrated in healthcare, construction, and professional and technical services, with the Kalispell/Missoula region tied for the fastest regional growth in the state at 0.6% annually (MTDLI, 2026).
Break that growth down into the state's 22 major occupation groups and one number stands out for being the only one below zero. Office and administrative support is projected to shed roughly 70 net jobs a year — the sole occupation group in Montana's entire forecast with negative new-job growth, even as every other category from construction to management adds workers (MTDLI, 2026).
| Montana occupation group, 2024–2034 forecast | Net new jobs/year | Total annual openings | Median wage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Office & Administrative Support | -70 (only negative group) | 7,140 | $44,120 |
| Food Preparation & Serving | +250 | 10,750 | $29,960 |
| Sales & Related | +110 | 6,850 | $37,230 |
| Management | +300 | 3,530 | $97,550 |
| Healthcare Practitioners & Technical | +460 | 2,410 | $79,850 |
It isn't layoffs. It's a replacement math that stopped working
A negative number for office and admin support doesn't mean the state expects mass firings. Montana's projections split every occupation's annual openings into three sources: new jobs from economic growth, exits from workers leaving the labor force, and transfers to a different occupation. Office and admin support's -70 new jobs a year sits next to 3,190 annual exits and 4,030 annual transfers — still adding up to 7,140 total annual openings, the second-highest of any occupation group in the state, right behind food service (MTDLI, 2026).
That's the part a simple "AI is killing jobs" headline misses. Montana employers aren't losing their office and admin staff overnight. They're going to spend the next decade continuously re-hiring into a role that fewer people are entering or staying in, for a category the state's own model says needs fewer total workers by the end of it. The seats keep turning over. The number of seats keeps shrinking.
The national data says why: it's specific tasks, not specific people
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Monthly Labor Review lays out the mechanism behind Montana's numbers at the national level. Office and administrative support occupations are projected to decline 3.9% nationally between 2024 and 2034 — a loss of 761,900 jobs — which the BLS attributes directly to AI technologies expanding into workflows and producing "additional efficiency gains" that limit demand for the roles built around routine, repeatable tasks (BLS, 2026). Montana's own methodology folds in the same national BLS technology-change factors when it translates industry growth into occupation-level demand, which is why the state and national pictures line up as closely as they do (MTDLI, 2026).
But the BLS breakdown isn't uniform, and that's the part worth paying attention to. Customer service representatives are projected to fall 5.5% nationally through 2034. General secretaries and administrative assistants fall a smaller 1.6%. Medical secretaries and administrative assistants do the opposite — they're projected to grow 4.2%, because demand from a growing healthcare industry outruns the automation effect in that specific role (BLS, 2026).
- Customer service representatives: -5.5% nationally through 2034, largest decline of the group (BLS, 2026).
- Secretaries and administrative assistants, general (non-medical, non-legal): -1.6% (BLS, 2026).
- Medical secretaries and administrative assistants: +4.2% — the one growing line in the category (BLS, 2026).
What separates the shrinking half from the growing half
The occupations losing ground are the ones built around volume: answering, routing, scheduling, repeating the same intake questions dozens of times a day. The one gaining ground is tied to a specific industry that's growing faster than the automation effect can offset — and it still requires judgment a routing script doesn't have: reading a chart note, catching an insurance mismatch, knowing which call is actually urgent. Same job title, different mix of tasks, opposite trend line.
What this means if you're staffing a growing operation
- Budget for the churn, not just the headcount. Montana's own numbers show 7,140 admin openings a year statewide even in a shrinking category — turnover cost doesn't disappear just because total demand is falling.
- Separate the two halves of the role before you hire for it. Routine intake — answering, routing, booking — is exactly the segment both the state and federal data show shrinking fastest. Judgment work — exceptions, disputes, anything that needs context — is the half that's still growing.
- Multi-location operators feel this first. Every new location duplicates the shrinking half of the role, not the growing half, unless the routine intake work is handled by a system instead of a fresh hire at each site.